George F Preddey BSc(hons) PhD
Physicist, futurist, tertiary teacher, disaster manager, education policy analyst/consultant (retired), marathoner
39 Anne St, Wadestown tel 0064.4.472.3369
Wellington 6012 fax 0064.4.472.3394
NEW ZEALAND email george.preddey@xtra.co.nz
28 March 2009 [Earth Day]
Hon Dr Nick Smith
Minister for Climate Change Issues
Updated Submission for Earth Day:
Global Economic Crisis: could it ameliorate the current mass extinction event and coming human cull?
Dear Minister
Thank you for your detailed response to my submission dated 6 March sent to all 122 MPs and to Chairs/Mayors of Regional/City/District Councils. I note that you are responding on behalf of your 57 National Party parliamentary colleagues. I have attached an Updated Submission for Earth Day that takes account of constructive criticism I’ve received, in particular from the Hon Jim Anderton. The updated submission also records significant events of last week (Copenhagen conference on climate change) and a lesson from Dr Seuss.
In your first paragraph you advise that the issues my submission raises fall within your responsibilities as Minister for Climate Change Issues. With respect, I must partly disagree. My submission is about the consequences of limits to economic growth in a finite biosphere. Climate change is one manifestation. I have identified in my revised submission four requirements for averting catastrophe (penultimate paragraph): [1] addresses climate change; [2] and [3] address limits to growth; [4] addresses human behavioural changes. No government has yet had the vision to appoint a Minister for Limits to Growth Issues.
You note (your second paragraph) that the Government takes advice primarily from IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. Because IPCC operates only on peer-reviewed papers etc available prior to specified deadlines, significant new evidence or events between deadlines and publication is excluded. This is perceived as a shortcoming of IPCC, widely regarded as the ultimate authority on climate science.
The deadline for cited publications for the Fourth Assessment Report was mid 2006. IPCC Chair Rajendra Pachauri admitted at its launch that, since IPCC began work on it, scientists had recorded much stronger trends in climate change (e.g. unforeseen melting of polar ice). My reading of the literature since 2006 is that global temperatures and sea levels have risen at or above maximum rates predicted by IPCC in 2007 and that IPCC, far from overstating dangers and risks, actually understates them. Some of the disquieting research has been carried out by New Zealand scientists working in Antarctica.
You have assured me (your second paragraph) that one of the significant findings of the Fourth Assessment Report is that “there is time and mechanisms available to ensure climate change is capped at a safe level” yet I read in the synthesis report that “anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible .. as global average temperature increase exceeds about 3.5°C, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% of species assessed) around the globe … Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply metres of sea level rise etc etc.” Linking that assessment with IPCC’s midrange projection (global average 4°C rise – and a tendency to understate its conclusions - leaves me unconvinced by your assurance.
You state (third paragraph) that “proposals for green or smart stimulus packages are gaining momentum in New Zealand … as a key solution to the economic crisis ... (and) … can not only counter recession but also create employment and set the stage for more sustainable economic development in the 21st century.” This sounds like a modified business-as-usual (growth) strategy that is not entirely supported by reality. National’s 2008 election policy included “50-by-50” - a 50% reduction in carbon emissions (1990 baseline) by 2050 - yet New Zealand’s carbon emissions continue to increase by 3% pa; and that’s before the construction of new fossil-fuelled power stations, mandated by legislative amendment during National’s “first 100 days”, has actually resumed.
Your sincerely
George Preddey
Attachment: Updated Submission for Earth Day
